If you remember one thing: the income you estimate at enrollment matters more than ever. Go over 400 percent of the poverty line and you lose the credit entirely, and since 2026 there is no cap on paying it back.
- 15%median proposed 2027 premium increase across 276 ACA insurers, per KFF
- $12,000maximum out-of-pocket limit for one person in 2027, up from $10,600
- 10.22%top share of income you are expected to pay for the benchmark plan in 2027
The 2027 changes at a glance
| What changed | What it means for you |
|---|---|
| Premiums rising again | Median proposed increase about 15 percent |
| Enhanced credits still gone | The 400 percent income cliff stays in place |
| No repayment cap | Underestimate income and you repay every dollar |
| Bronze plans HSA eligible | Save pre-tax, up to $4,500 single or $9,000 family in 2027 |
| Out-of-pocket cap up | Up to $12,000 single and $24,000 family |
| Carrier exits | Cigna leaves 11 states, others leave single states |
| Immigrant eligibility narrowed | Fewer lawfully present immigrants qualify for credits |
1. Premiums are going up for the second year in a row
KFF reviewed rate filings from 276 insurers in all 50 states and DC and found a median proposed increase of about 15 percent for 2027. Last year's median finalized increase was 20 percent, so this is the second straight year of double-digit hikes.
Insurers point to two main causes. Medical and drug costs are rising about 10 percent a year, above the recent 8 percent norm. And the end of the enhanced tax credits pushed healthier people out of the market, which insurers say adds about 4 percentage points to 2027 rates. Final prices appear when open enrollment starts November 1.
If you get a subsidy, a rising benchmark price raises your credit too, which cushions most of the increase. If you pay full price, you feel all of it.
2. The subsidy cliff is still here
The enhanced premium tax credits that ran from 2021 through 2025 expired on January 1, 2026. Congress has debated extending them, but as of late September 2026 no extension has become law. So for 2027 the original ACA rules apply. Premium tax credits stop at 400 percent of the poverty line, which is $63,840 for one person and $132,000 for a family of four for 2027 coverage.
Below the line, the IRS sets your expected contribution for the benchmark silver plan at 2.15 to 10.22 percent of income for 2027, up from a top rate of 9.96 percent in 2026. Above the line, you get nothing. I explain the math, and the legal ways to stay under it, in my guide to the 2027 subsidy cliff.
3. No more cap on paying credits back
This is the change I worry about most for my clients. Your tax credit is paid monthly based on your income estimate, then reconciled on your tax return. Until 2025, if you underestimated, the amount you had to repay was capped for most households. The IRS confirms that the 2025 tax law removed those limits for tax years beginning after December 31, 2025. Starting with 2026 coverage, you repay the full excess.
For self employed people and commission earners, this is serious. Cross 400 percent of the poverty line by surprise and you could owe back a full year of credits. Estimate carefully, and update the marketplace during the year if your income changes.
4. Bronze and catastrophic plans now work with an HSA
Starting January 1, 2026, bronze and catastrophic plans count as HSA compatible even if they do not meet the usual high deductible plan rules, according to Treasury and IRS guidance. That continues for 2027, and the IRS raised the 2027 HSA contribution limits to $4,500 for self-only coverage and $9,000 for family coverage, plus $1,000 more if you are 55 or older.
For a healthy household paying full price, a bronze plan plus an HSA can be a strong pair. You save pre-tax money for medical bills, and the contribution lowers the income the marketplace counts, which can help near the cliff.
5. The out-of-pocket maximum rises to $12,000
CMS set the 2027 maximum out-of-pocket limit at $12,000 for one person and $24,000 for a family, up from $10,600 and $21,200 in 2026, about a 13 percent jump. Not every plan will go to the limit, but many bronze plans will be close to it. Compare the maximum, not just the deductible.
6. Some insurers are leaving
Cigna is exiting the ACA individual market for 2027 in all 11 states where it sells, affecting about 369,000 members, including Florida, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Colorado. Baylor Scott and White Health Plan is also leaving the Texas individual market, affecting about 100,000 enrollees. If your insurer leaves, you are usually moved automatically to a similar plan from another company, which may not include your doctors. Read what to do when your carrier leaves.
7. Fewer immigrants qualify for help
Under the 2025 reconciliation law, starting January 1, 2027, marketplace tax credits are limited to citizens, lawful permanent residents, certain Cuban and Haitian entrants and people from the Compact of Free Association nations, per KFF. Refugees, asylees, people with Temporary Protected Status and people on work visas can still buy a plan, but at full price.
What did not change
Pre-existing conditions are still covered. Open enrollment on HealthCare.gov still runs November 1, 2026 to January 15, 2027, with December 15 as the date for a January 1 start. Silver loading continues, so gold plans can cost less than silver in many areas. And some states are adding their own help. Virginia launches Virginia Premium Savings for 2027 for incomes from 138 to 250 percent of the poverty line.
What I'd do now
Open your renewal notice when it arrives, and do not let auto renewal decide for you. If your income is low enough that the credit covers most of the premium, you may be fine picking the cheapest plan with your doctors on HealthCare.gov yourself. If you are near or above the cliff, self employed, or losing your carrier, that is where a second set of eyes pays off. I'm Carson Hornish, an independent broker licensed in 31 states, and my help is free. Here is how that works.
Common questions
What are the biggest Obamacare changes for 2027?
Insurers proposed a median premium increase of about 15 percent for 2027. The enhanced tax credits remain expired, so credits stop at 400 percent of the poverty line. There is no cap on repaying excess credits, bronze plans are HSA eligible, the out-of-pocket maximum rises to $12,000, and several insurers including Cigna are leaving.
Are Obamacare subsidies going away in 2027?
No. Premium tax credits continue in 2027 for people between 100 and 400 percent of the poverty line. What went away were the enhanced credits that extended help above 400 percent and lowered costs for everyone else. They expired January 1, 2026, and as of September 2026 no extension has become law.
How much will Obamacare premiums go up in 2027?
KFF found ACA insurers proposing a median increase of about 15 percent for 2027, based on filings from 276 insurers. Final rates vary by state and plan and are published when open enrollment begins November 1, 2026. People with tax credits are partly shielded because credits rise with benchmark prices.
Can I use an HSA with an Obamacare bronze plan in 2027?
Yes. Since January 1, 2026, bronze and catastrophic plans count as HSA compatible under Treasury and IRS guidance. For 2027 you can contribute up to $4,500 for self-only coverage or $9,000 for family coverage, plus $1,000 more if you are 55 or older.
Do I have to pay back my Obamacare subsidy if my income goes up?
You reconcile your credit on your tax return. Starting with the 2026 tax year, the IRS says there is no longer a cap on repaying excess advance credits, so if your actual income is higher than your estimate you repay the full difference.
Want to know how 2027 hits your household?
Tell me your ZIP, household and rough income, and I will show you what changed for you and which plan makes sense, free, no pressure.
Check my 2027 options →Rather pick a time yourself? Book a call on my calendar
Sources
- KFF, ACA Marketplace insurers are proposing a median premium increase of about 15% in 2027
- Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, How much and why ACA Marketplace premiums are going up in 2027
- ASTHO, ACA enhanced premium tax credits: legislative developments in 2025 and 2026
- IRS, Revenue Procedure 2026-26, 2027 applicable percentage table
- IRS, Revenue Procedure 2025-25, 2026 applicable percentage table
- HHS ASPE, 2026 poverty guidelines, detailed table
- IRS, Updated frequently asked questions on the Premium Tax Credit
- IRS, Treasury and IRS guidance on new HSA tax benefits under the One, Big, Beautiful Bill
- IRS, Revenue Procedure 2026-24, 2027 HSA inflation adjusted amounts
- CMS, 2027 Premium Adjustment Percentage and Maximum Annual Limitation on Cost Sharing guidance
- STAT, Cigna to exit the ACA individual market in 2027
- KFF, Tracking insurer participation changes in the ACA marketplaces in 2027
- Becker's Payer Issues, Baylor Scott and White Health Plan to exit individual market
- ACA Signups, 2027 rate changes, Texas individual market filings
- KFF, Recent policies that impact health coverage and care for immigrant families
- Virginia's Insurance Marketplace, Federal changes to the Marketplace and Virginia Premium Savings
- HealthCare.gov, When can you get health insurance? Dates and deadlines